Machine learned daily life history classification using low frequency tracking data and automated modelling pipelines: application to North American waterfowl

Background: Identifying animal behaviors, life history states, and movement patterns is a prerequisite for many animal behavior analyses and effective management of wildlife and habitats. Most approaches classify short-term movement patterns with high frequency location or accelerometry data. However, patterns reflecting life history across longer time scales can have greater relevance to species biology or management needs, especially when available in near real-time. Given limitations in collecting and using such data to accurately classify complex behaviors in the long-term, we used hourly GPS data from 5 waterfowl species to produce daily activity classifications with machine-learned models using “automated modelling pipelines”. Methods: Automated pipelines are computer-generated code that complete many tasks including feature engineering, multi-framework model development, training, validation, and hyperparameter tuning to produce daily classifications from eight activity patterns reflecting waterfowl life history or movement states. We developed several input features for modeling grouped into three broad categories, hereafter “feature sets”: GPS locations, habitat information, and movement history. Each feature set used different data sources or data collected across different time intervals to develop the “features” (independent variables) used in models. Results: Automated modelling pipelines rapidly developed easily reproducible data preprocessing and analysis steps, identification and optimization of the best performing model and provided outputs for interpreting feature importance. Unequal expression of life history states caused unbalanced classes, so we evaluated feature set importance using a weighted F1-score to balance model recall and precision among individual classes. Although the best model using the least restrictive feature set (only 24 hourly relocations in a day) produced effective classifications (weighted F1 = 0.887), models using all feature sets performed substantially better (weighted F1 = 0.95), particularly for rarer but demographically more impactful life history states (i.e., nesting). Conclusions: Automated pipelines generated models producing highly accurate classifications of complex daily activity patterns using relatively low frequency GPS and incorporating more classes than previous GPS studies. Near real-time classification is possible which is ideal for time-sensitive needs such as identifying reproduction. Including habitat and longer sequences of spatial information produced more accurate classifications but incurred slight delays in processing

Waterfowl recently infected with low pathogenic avian influenza exhibit reduced local movement and delayed migration

Understanding relationships between infection and wildlife movement patterns is important for predicting pathogen spread, especially for multispecies pathogens and those that can spread to humans and domestic animals, such as avian influenza viruses (AIVs). Although infection with low pathogenic AIVs is generally considered asymptomatic in wild birds, prior work has shown that influenza-infected birds occasionally delay migration and/or reduce local movements relative to their uninfected counterparts. However, most observational research to date has focused on a few species in northern Europe; given that influenza viruses are widespread globally and outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains are increasingly common, it is important to explore influenza–movement relationships across more species and regions. Here, we used telemetry data to investigate relationships between influenza infection and movement behavior in 165 individuals from four species of North American waterfowl that overwinter in California, USA. We studied both large-scale migratory and local overwintering movements and found that relationships between influenza infection and movement patterns varied among species. Northern pintails (Anas acuta) with antibodies to avian influenza, indicating prior infection, made migratory stopovers that averaged 12 days longer than those with no influenza antibodies. In contrast, greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) with antibodies to avian influenza made migratory stopovers that averaged 15 days shorter than those with no antibodies. Canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) that were actively infected with influenza upon capture in the winter delayed spring migration by an average of 28 days relative to birds that were uninfected at the time of capture. At the local scale, northern pintails and canvasbacks that were actively infected with influenza used areas that were 7.6 and 4.9 times smaller than those of uninfected ducks, respectively, during the period of presumed active influenza infection. We found no evidence for an influence of active influenza infection on local movements of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). These results suggest that avian influenza can influence waterfowl movements and illustrate that the relationships between avian influenza infection and wild bird movements are context- and species-dependent. More generally, understanding and predicting the spread of multihost pathogens requires studying multiple taxa across space and time

Pathways for avian influenza virus spread: GPS reveals wild waterfowl in commercial livestock facilities and connectivity with the natural wetland landscape

Zoonotic diseases are of considerable concern to the human population and viruses such as avian influenza (AIV) threaten food security, wildlife conservation and human health. Wild waterfowl and the natural wetlands they use are known AIV reservoirs, with birds capable of virus transmission to domestic poultry populations. While infection risk models have linked migration routes and AIV outbreaks, there is a limited understanding of wild waterfowl presence on commercial livestock facilities, and movement patterns linked to natural wetlands. We documented 11 wild waterfowl (three Anatidae species) in or near eight commercial livestock facilities in Washington and California with GPS telemetry data. Wild ducks used dairy and beef cattle feed lots and facility retention ponds during both day and night suggesting use for roosting and foraging. Two individuals (single locations) were observed inside poultry facility boundaries while using nearby wetlands. Ducks demonstrated high site fidelity, returning to the same areas of habitats (at livestock facilities and nearby wetlands), across months or years, showed strong connectivity with surrounding wetlands, and arrived from wetlands up to 1251 km away in the week prior. Telemetry data provides substantial advantages over observational data, allowing assessment of individual movement behaviour and wetland connectivity that has significant implications for outbreak management. Telemetry improves our understanding of risk factors for waterfowl–livestock virus transmission and helps identify factors associated with coincident space use at the wild waterfowl–domestic livestock interface. Our research suggests that even relatively small or isolated natural and artificial water or food sources in/near facilities increases the likelihood of attracting waterfowl, which has important consequences for managers attempting to minimize or prevent AIV outbreaks. Use and interpretation of telemetry data, especially in near-real-time, could provide key information for reducing virus transmission risk between waterfowl and livestock, improving protective barriers between wild and domestic species, and abating outbreaks

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley

Study area and locations of habitats used by wintering waterbirds.

<p>The Central Valley of California including major rivers, lakes, and reservoirs that are part of the surface water supply system and important waterbird habitats including managed wetlands, rice fields in the Sacramento Valley and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (Delta) and flooded fields in the Tulare Lake (dry) bed (other corn not shown) existing in 2005.</p

Median and worst-year area and percent of existing wintering waterbird habitat for 17 scenarios.

<p>Median and worst-year area (km²) and percent (%) of existing wintering waterbird habitat projected to be available in the Central Valley of California during 2006–35, 2036–65 and 2066–99 for 17 scenarios comprised of various climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration levels (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0169780#pone.0169780.t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a> for scenario descriptions). Existing habitat is the approximate area of waterbird habitat (3,183 km²) that existed in the Central Valley in 2005.</p

Scenarios modeled to evaluate projected impacts on habitats of wintering waterbirds.

<p>Climate and urbanization projections, water supply management options, and wetland restoration levels included in scenarios used to estimate annual water supplies and area of wintering waterbird habitats that could be supported with those water supplies in the Central Valley of California during 2006–2099.</p

Waterbird habitat projected for 17 scenarios, years 2006–2099.

<p>Area (km²) and proportion of existing (3,183 km² in 2005) wintering waterbird habitat projected to be available in the Central Valley of California during 2006–99 for 17 scenarios (A. 1–5, B. 6–9, C. 10–13, D. 14–17) comprised of various climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration levels (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0169780#pone.0169780.t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a> for scenario descriptions).</p

Avian influenza antibody prevalence increases with mercury contamination in wild waterfowl.

Environmental contamination is widespread and can negatively impact wildlife health. Some contaminants, including heavy metals, have immunosuppressive effects, but prior studies have rarely measured contamination and disease simultaneously, which limits our understanding of how contaminants and pathogens interact to influence wildlife health. Here, we measured mercury concentrations, influenza infection, influenza antibodies and body condition in 749 individuals from 11 species of wild ducks overwintering in California. We found that the odds of prior influenza infection increased more than fivefold across the observed range of blood mercury concentrations, while accounting for species, age, sex and date. Influenza infection prevalence was also higher in species with higher average mercury concentrations. We detected no relationship between influenza infection and body fat content. This positive relationship between influenza prevalence and mercury concentrations in migratory waterfowl suggests that immunotoxic effects of mercury contamination could promote the spread of avian influenza along migratory flyways, especially if influenza has minimal effects on bird health and mobility. More generally, these results show that the effects of environmental contamination could extend beyond the geographical area of contamination itself by altering the prevalence of infectious diseases in highly mobile hosts